overConfidence

Overconfidence often displays itself as overt confidence, one that needs to be recognized and acknowledged. There are a lot of people who fall into this lane, especially a lot of self-help gurus.

I tend to be distrustful of people who don’t at least live in an epistemic world where they aren’t out to get you, and that you’re not going to know everything. Back when I was involved in political nonprofits, I met this guy who was involved in atheism and anti-woke stuff. Superficially a friendly guy, and a writer of how to deradicalize and have challenging conversations, the axis he believed in was that of empathy. When you treat other people well, the ideas the other people have become compelling. The more I talked to him, the more it was clear that his view was a little premature. If someone has convictions or a logically thought out stance, provided they are aware of the other side’s perspective, the side aimed at deradicalization may not be the one changing minds. I don’t think the guy was a bad guy, and some of the stuff he wrote was rather insightful, it’s just I don’t think his thesis was correct.

On the other hand, sometimes you need to crack a few delulus to make a success story. Evidence does not suggest, in general, that you will be more successful than those around you. If anything, you are likely to be about average. Having the delusional gene can help manifest and create success because attitude matters. A lot of people follow those who have conviction and authority since people like to follow, and believing in your direction, or appearing to are desirable traits in a leader.