If a king is vengeful, and interested in staying alive, saying that the king is overthrown, prior to the event happening will get you destroyed. Saying it too late, and you don’t benefit either, everyone already knows.
In order to really benefit, you need to work with the group, with other people. With this in mind, it’s clear that the same holds true of financial markets, reputation, and virtually anything else with a social component.
Britain literally speculated about the prices of tulips, and brought them to prices 5000% greater than they were before. If you unilaterally predicted that the bottom would fall out, you’d likely lose a bunch of money. Instead, you needed to coordinate and time in such a way that the markets would move in your direction. Soros breaking the bank of England was an example of that type of shrewd operator. The money he spent allowed him to make significantly more than he invested because others jumped in, seeing money to be made by collaborating.
This is also true about political movements. As a movement is rising in popularity, it’s not wise to air out it’s dirty laundry. The leaders have a vested interest in defending their turf, of protecting their self-interests. Only when the true believers are gone or otherwise incapacitated that you can hit them on the way down.
The important thing to recognize is when you can hit back unpunished because others are doing so. Doing this prevents you from taking the fall if the king has some fight left.
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